Daily Forex Analysis – AUD/USD
The immediate bias in the AUD/USD exchange rate favors the upside. A decisive breach of the 0.6514 cluster resistance, aligning with the 38.2% retracement of the movement from 0.6898 to 0.6273 (specifically at 0.6512), would suggest that the corrective decline from the 0.7160 peak has ended with its three-wave fall to 0.6273. Following this, a stronger rally is anticipated, possibly reaching the falling channel resistance, currently situated at 0.6688. However, if the rate dips below the minor support at 0.6459, the intraday bias would shift to neutral.
From a broader perspective, there’s yet no definitive sign that the downtrend from the 2021 high of 0.8010 has concluded. Although the current rebound from 0.6273 might extend, it might still represent only the third phase of the corrective pattern that began at the 2022 low of 0.6173. For the medium term, bearish sentiment is likely to persist as long as the 0.6898 resistance remains unbreached.
Analysis Summary
The AUD/USD pair shows an upward intraday bias, with a key resistance at 0.6514. A break above this level could indicate an end to the corrective fall from 0.7160. The pair’s medium-term outlook remains bearish unless it surpasses the 0.6898 resistance.
Key Points:
- Upside bias with 0.6514 as pivotal resistance.
- A break above resistance may end a corrective decline.
- Medium-term bearishness persists under 0.6898.
