Detailed FX Market Outlook and Analysis

AUD/USD Daily Analysis 12-MAY-2023

AUD/USD Daily Analysis

The intraday bias for AUD/USD remains slightly bearish, suggesting a potential retest of the 0.6563 low. It is possible that the consolidation pattern from that level has already completed with three waves up to 0.6817. However, if there is a decisive break below 0.6563, it will signal the continuation of the broader decline from 0.7156. Currently, the risk remains slightly tilted to the downside as long as the resistance at 0.6817 holds, but there is a possibility of a recovery.

Zooming out to the bigger picture, as long as the 61.8% retracement level of the upward move from 0.6169 to 0.7156, located at 0.6546, remains intact, the decline from 0.7156 is viewed as a correction within the larger rally from the 2022 low of 0.6169. Another upward movement is still expected to occur, potentially surpassing the 0.7156 level in the future. However, if there is a sustained break below 0.6546, it would increase the likelihood of a long-term resumption of the downtrend, potentially targeting the previous low at 0.6169.

Latest Analysis