Detailed FX Market Outlook and Analysis

AUD/USD Daily Analysis 15-MAY-2023

AUD/USD Daily Analysis

The intraday bias for AUD/USD remains negative, despite the recovery witnessed today. The consolidation pattern that started at 0.6563 may have concluded with three waves leading up to 0.6817. A more profound decline is expected, aiming to retest the 0.6563 low. A conclusive dip beyond that point will continue the larger drop from 0.7156 towards the 61.8% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6563 from 0.6817, landing at 0.6451. However, if it ascends above the 0.6705 minor resistance, this would postpone the bearish forecast and render the intraday bias neutral.

From a wider perspective, the inability to surpass the 55 W EMA (currently at 0.6822) maintains a bearish medium-term outlook. A robust drop beyond the 61.8% retracement of the 0.6169 to 0.7156 range at 0.6546 would increase the probability of a long-term downtrend resuming through the 0.6169 low. As long as the 0.6817 resistance is upheld, this scenario is preferred.

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