Detailed FX Market Outlook and Analysis

AUD/USD Daily Analysis 16-MAR-2023

AUD/USD Daily Analysis

The intraday bias for AUD/USD remains neutral at the moment, with range trading continuing above 0.6563. The focus remains on whether the Fibonacci level at 0.6546 will provide strong support to bring about a reversal. If there is a firm break of the resistance level at 0.6715, it will indicate short-term bottoming and turn the bias back to the upside for a rebound to the 55-day EMA (now at 0.6787) and above. However, if there is a sustained break of 0.6546, it will carry a larger bearish implication and target the 0.6169 low.

Looking at the bigger picture, the rise from the 2022 low of 0.6169 has completed at 0.7156, after rejection by the 55-month EMA (now at 0.7158). A deeper decline would then be seen back to the 61.8% retracement of the move from 0.6169 to 0.7156, which is at 0.6546, even as a corrective fall. If there is a sustained break at that level, it will raise the chance of a long-term downtrend resumption through the 0.6169 low.

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