Daily Forex Analysis – AUD/USD
The Australian Dollar versus the US Dollar (AUD/USD) currently maintains a downward intraday bias. There is an expectation for a continued decline toward a retest of the 0.6273 support level. A decisive break below this point would indicate a resumption of the larger downtrend from the 0.7160 high, potentially leading to another test of the 0.6173 low. Conversely, if the pair climbs above the minor resistance of 0.6431, it would temporarily neutralize the intraday bearish sentiment. However, the overall bearish outlook will persist as long as the 0.6514 cluster resistance holds, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (0.6898 to 0.6273 at 0.6512).
Looking at the broader picture, there’s yet to be definitive evidence that the downtrend from the 2021 high of 0.8010 has concluded. Although there might be an extension of the current rebound from 0.6273, it could represent a part of a corrective pattern originating from the 2022 low of 0.6173. The bearish perspective will continue to dominate for the medium term as long as the 0.6898 resistance level remains unbreached.
Analysis Summary
The AUD/USD pair exhibits a downward intraday trend with potential retesting of the 0.6273 support. A break below this could lead to further declines, while a rise above 0.6431 might offer temporary relief. The medium-term outlook remains bearish, especially if the 0.6898 resistance is not surpassed.
Key Points
- The downward intraday trend towards 0.6273.
- Bearish outlook under 0.6514 resistance.
- Medium-term bearishness until 0.6898 is breached.
