Detailed FX Market Outlook and Analysis

AUD/USD Downwards Momentum Continues

audusd analysis

AUD/USD Analysis

The AUD/USD pair is currently experiencing a loss in upward momentum, especially as it approaches the 0.6898 resistance level, resulting in a shift to a neutral intraday bias. Should there be a decisive break above this 0.6898 threshold, it could potentially extend the rally originating from 0.6273, aiming next for the 0.7160 key resistance. However, on the flip side, if the pair breaks below the 0.6800 support level, it would suggest the formation of a short-term top, particularly under the bearish divergence condition evident in the 4-hour MACD. Such a scenario would reverse the intraday bias back towards a downward trajectory, potentially pulling back to the 0.6693 level, which is a resistance-turned-support.

From a broader perspective, there’s yet to be a definitive confirmation that the downtrend from the 0.8006 level (high of 2021) has reached its conclusion. The price movements from the 0.6173 low in 2022 might represent merely a medium-term corrective pattern. The recent rise from 0.6269 is interpreted as the third leg of this corrective pattern. For the time being, it’s expected that the pair will engage in range trading, oscillating between the 0.6173 and 0.7160 (high of 2023) levels, pending any further market developments.

Analysis Summary

AUD/USD exhibits a neutral intraday bias with waning upward momentum near the 0.6898 resistance. A break above this level could lead to testing the 0.7160 resistance. Conversely, a drop below the 0.6800 support hints at a short-term peak and potential pullback to 0.6693. The broader view suggests continued range trading between 2022’s low and 2023’s high.

Key Points

Neutral intraday bias in AUD/USD near 0.6898 resistance.
Potential rally continuation towards 0.7160 on a break above resistance.
The broader trend indicates range trading within 2022 and 2023’s significant levels.

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