The AUD/USD pair maintains a short-term upward bias, with the current rally from 0.6273 likely to continue towards the channel resistance, now situated at 0.6669. A decisive break above this level could set the stage for an approach towards the next resistance at 0.6898. Conversely, a dip below the minor support at 0.6589 would neutralize the intraday bias and potentially lead to some consolidation. However, the outlook for a further ascent remains favorable as long as the support at 0.6525, which was previously a resistance, is not breached.
From a broader perspective, there’s yet no definitive indication that the downtrend from the 2021 high of 0.8010 has reached its conclusion. Although the current rebound from 0.6273 may extend further, it is likely to be just one segment of the corrective pattern originating from the 2022 low of 0.6173. In the medium term, the bearish sentiment will persist as long as the 0.6898 resistance level remains intact.
Analysis summary
AUD/USD shows a short-term upward trend with the potential to test channel resistance at 0.6669. Further gains are likely unless the pair falls below 0.6589, which would lead to consolidation. The medium-term outlook remains bearish until the pair convincingly surpasses the 0.6898 resistance.
Key Points
- Short-term upside bias towards 0.6669 channel resistance.
- Consolidation is likely if below 0.6589.
- Medium-term bearishness is valid below 0.6898.
