Daily Forex Analysis – AUD/USD
The current intraday stance for the AUD/USD pair leans towards an upward trajectory. A decisive break beyond the 0.6514 resistance threshold—representing a 38.2% retracement from 0.6898 to 0.6273 (precisely 0.6512)—would suggest that the previous downward trend from the 2022 high of 0.7160 might have reached completion, following a three-wave descent to 0.6273. Should this occur, we could anticipate a more substantial rally heading towards the medium-term trendline resistance, now sitting at 0.6712.
Conversely, if the currency pair experiences a pushback at the 0.6514 mark, the short-term outlook would likely maintain its bearish slant, hinting at a reluctance to initiate a bullish phase.
The downtrend initiated from the high of 0.8006 witnessed in 2021 is still without a definitive sign of reversal. While the current recovery starting from 0.6273 may progress, it’s plausible to consider it merely a component of a larger corrective structure originating from the low of 0.6173 observed in 2022. Unless the pair can breach the 0.6898 resistance, medium-term bearish sentiment is expected to prevail in the market sentiment.
This analysis underscores the critical juncture at which the AUD/USD pair finds itself, with potential signals on the horizon indicating either a continued recovery or a reaffirmation of the prevailing downtrend.
Analysis Summary
The AUD/USD pair’s intraday bias is bullish, but the medium-term outlook remains bearish. A break above 0.6514 could signify the end of the downtrend from 2022, while failure to do so could maintain bearish momentum. Long-term reversal is unconfirmed unless resistance at 0.6898 is overcome.
Key Bullet Points
- A conclusive move above 0.6514 hints at an end to the downtrend from 2022’s high.
- Rejection at 0.6514 could sustain the short-term bearish outlook.
- The long-term downtrend remains intact without a clear break of 0.6898 resistance.
