Detailed FX Market Outlook and Analysis

Daily Forex Analysis – AUD/USD – 23-June-2023

AUDUSD Daily Forex Analysis

AUD/USD Daily Forex Analysis

In our Daily Forex Analysis of the AUD/USD pair, we observe an accelerated decline from 0.6902, which has breached the 38.2% retracement of the rise from 0.6461 to 0.6902 at 0.6734. The Intraday Outlook suggests a deepening fall, targeting the 61.8% retracement at 0.6629. However, should the resistance at 0.6809 be broken, it would suggest that this downward move has run its course. Until that happens, any recovery would still entail downside risk.

Expanding to a larger timeframe, our Daily Analysis shows that the descent from 0.7160 may have culminated in a three-wave correction at 0.6461. This development hints at the continuation of the rise from the 2022 low of 0.6173. A solid break above 0.7160 would bolster the case that the overall downtrend from the 2021 high of 0.8010 has come to a close, shifting the medium-term outlook to bullish. For the time being, this is the preferred scenario, as long as the 55 D EMA (now at 0.6698) holds firm, even in the face of a substantial pullback.

AUD/USD Daily Analysis Summary

AUD/USD is witnessing a downward acceleration, but a break above the 0.6809 resistance could suggest the end of the fall. Any recovery, however, still carries downside risk until this happens.

Key Points:

  • AUD/USD’s decline from 0.6902 is quickening, with a deeper fall to 0.6629 expected.
  • A break above 0.6809 resistance is needed to signal the end of the current decline.
  • The medium-term outlook could turn bullish if a firm break above 0.7160 occurs, indicating an end to the overall downtrend from the 2021 high.

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