Daily Forex Analysis – AUD/USD
The recent breach of the 0.6402 resistance level by AUD/USD suggests the establishment of a short-term bottom at the same mark. This shift places the intraday bias firmly towards an upward trajectory, aiming for the 0.6514 cluster resistance. This particular resistance point represents a critical juncture — a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from 0.6898 to 0.6273, converging at 0.6512. Should the AUD/USD encounter resistance at this level and fail to break through, it would preserve the near-term bearish outlook, possibly leading to another decline towards 0.6273 in the future. Conversely, a robust and decisive surge past 0.6514 could suggest the end of the decline from 0.7160, which unfolded in three distinct waves down to 0.6273. In such a scenario, a more substantial rally is likely to ensue.
In the broader perspective, the downtrend that commenced from the 2021 high of 0.8010 might still be underway. A decisive dip below 0.6173 would aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci projection of the decline from 0.8010 to 0.6173, then up to 0.7160, targeting the 0.6025 level. This scenario remains the more probable as long as the 0.6898 level stands unbreached, even in the face of a strong rebound.
This analysis outlines how the AUD/USD’s movements, especially around key Fibonacci levels and past highs like that of 2021, help decipher its short-term and longer-term market trends.
Analysis Summary
AUD/USD’s breach of the 0.6402 resistance signals a potential short-term bottom, directing focus to the 0.6514 cluster resistance. A failure to break this resistance could mean a reversion to bearish trends. However, surpassing 0.6514 might end the decline from 0.7160, indicating a more substantial rally ahead.
Key Bullet Points
- A breach of 0.6402 hints at a short-term bottom for AUD/USD.
- The key focus is on the 0.6514 cluster resistance for trend direction.
- A decisive break of 0.6514 may signal the end of the decline from 0.7160.
