Detailed FX Market Outlook and Analysis

EUR/JPY Daily Analysis 20-MAR-2023

EUR/JPY Daily Analysis

The intraday bias for EUR/JPY is currently neutral, and the consolidation from the temporary low of 139.11 may continue. However, the overall outlook remains unchanged, as the drop from 145.55 is the third leg of the corrective decline from 148.38. The risk is still on the downside, as long as the 4-hour 55 EMA (now at 142.55) holds. If the price falls below 139.11, the next targets will be the low at 137.37 and the Fibonacci level at 135.40.

Looking at the bigger picture, as long as the 55-week EMA (now at 139.54) holds, the larger upward trend from the 2020 low of 114.42 is still in progress, with a long-term resistance at 149.76. However, a firm break of the 55-week EMA will bring a deeper decline to the retracement of 38.2% from 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40. If the price stays below this level, it will increase the chance of a trend reversal and target the 61.8% retracement at 127.39.

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