Detailed FX Market Outlook and Analysis

EUR/USD Daily Analysis 18-MAY-2022

EUR/USD Daily Analysis

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral and the outlook is unchanged. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4-hour MACD, a break of 1.0641 resistance will confirm short-term bottoming at 1.0348, ahead of 1.0339 long-term support. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.0805 support turned resistance. On the downside, however, a decisive break of 1.0339 will carry a larger bearish implication and target a 161.8% projection of 1.1494 to 1.0805 from 1.1184 at 1.0069.

In the bigger picture, the break of medium-term channel support suggests downside acceleration. The current decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is probably resuming a long-term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). A decisive break of 1.0339 will confirm this bearish case. The next target is a 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0805 support turned resistance holds.

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