Daily Forex Analysis – EUR/USD
The short-term directional momentum of EUR/USD remains undecided at present. A break above the 1.0697 level could catalyze a continuation of the recovery from 1.0451, directing attention to the 1.0767 cluster resistance. This pivotal point coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 1.1278 down to 1.0451. Conversely, should the pair slide below 1.0519, it would signal a readiness to resume the more extensive downtrend from the high of 1.1278, potentially revisiting the 1.0451 low and may extend towards the 1.0203 Fibonacci support.
From a macro perspective, the descent from the medium-term apex of 1.1278 might be interpreted as a corrective phase in the more considerable ascent from the 2022 low of 0.9538. The current price action could unfold as a temporary rally, representing the second segment of this broader pattern. Nonetheless, any ascents are anticipated to halt significantly short of the 1.1278 resistance, setting the stage for a third descent. This bearish pattern is projected to seek at least the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from 0.9538 to 1.1278, located at 1.0203, before reaching its conclusion.
Analysis Summary
EUR/USD is at a crossroads, with the potential to extend its rebound toward 1.0767 or resume its more considerable fall, eyeing the 1.0203 level as a significant bearish target.
Key Points:
- Neutral intraday bias with a possible push towards 1.0767.
- A dip below 1.0519 may lead to a more significant downtrend resumption.
- The broader correction pattern targets the 1.0203 Fibonacci level.
