Daily Forex Analysis – EUR/USD
The ongoing consolidation phase observed in the EUR/USD trading pair, originating from a pivot at 1.0451, continues to hold a neutral intraday bias. A critical examination towards the downside reveals that a decisive breach of the 1.0451 threshold could potentially trigger a continuation of the previous downtrend from 1.1278, with the 1.0203 Fibonacci retracement level serving as a probable target. Conversely, a northward break through the 1.0643 markers could reignite the recovery phase from 1.0451, aiming towards the 55-Day Exponential Moving Average (DEMA), currently situated at 1.0696.
Elongating the analysis to a broader timeframe, the decline from the 1.1278 medium-term zenith could arguably be perceived as a corrective wave to the significant ascent from 0.9538, the trough recorded in 2022. Nevertheless, the likelihood of witnessing a comprehensive trend reversal is gradually amplifying. Regardless of the trajectory, the ongoing descent is anticipated to navigate towards the 61.8% retracement level of the previous swing, marked at 1.0203, in the near term. At this juncture, the downside risk remains prevalent as long as the 55 DEMA (now at 1.0696) sustains, especially in the scenario of a potential rebound.
Analysis Summary
The EUR/USD pair is currently in a consolidation phase with a neutral intraday bias stemming from 1.0451. A significant breach on either side of this pivot could continue the prevailing trend, with a downside risk persisting as long as the 55 DEMA at 1.0696 holds.
Key Points
- Ongoing consolidation from pivot at 1.0451
- Potential downside target at 1.0203 Fibonacci level
- Prevailing downside risk with 55 DEMA at 1.0696
