Daily Forex Analysis – EUR/USD
In our current analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair, the intraday posture remains decidedly neutral. However, the market sentiment leans toward a bullish uptick, contingent on the currency’s performance above the 55 4H Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which presently stands at 1.0660. A convincing surge past the 1.0768 resistance zone—which incorporates the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, ascending from 1.1278 down to 1.0451 at 1.0767—would likely propel the pair towards the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0962.
Conversely, should the pair falter below the 55 4H EMA, it would suggest the previous uptrend is losing steam, setting the sights on the support threshold at 1.0519, with a further potential decline to revisit the trough at 1.0451.
The price fluctuations from the peak of 2022 at 1.1278 appear to be a correction within an overall uptrend from the 2022 nadir of 0.9538. The current recovery from 1.0451 is hypothesized as the middle phase of a larger pattern. Although the near-term outlook may show bullish momentum, we anticipate that any ascent will be curtailed by the 1.1278 boundary, potentially setting the stage for a subsequent corrective phase.
Analysis Summary
The EUR/USD exhibits a neutral stance in the short term with a potential rally on the horizon, subject to maintaining support above the 55 4H EMA. The bigger picture suggests a corrective pattern with expectations for the rise to face resistance below the 2022 high, leading to a further consolidation phase.
Key Points
- Current neutral intraday bias with a bullish inclination above the 55 4H EMA at 1.0660.
- A break above 1.0768 could target the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0962.
- A sustained drop below the 55 4H EMA may shift the focus to support levels at 1.0519 and 1.0451.
