GBP/USD Daily Analysis
The 4-hour MACD indicates that the GBP/USD is losing some upward momentum. However, a further rally is expected as long as the support at 1.2189 remains intact, which could lead to a resistance zone of 1.2445/6. A solid breakthrough at this level would resume the larger rally from 1.0351, with a target of the Fibonacci level at 1.2759. On the other hand, if 1.2189 is broken, it would signal a downside bias and the possibility of extending the corrective pattern from 1.2445 with another falling leg.
Looking at the bigger picture, the price action from 1.2445 is seen as a corrective pattern to the rise from the medium-term bottom of 1.0351 (2022 low). A resumption of the rally from 1.0351 is expected, and a breakthrough at 1.2446 would target the 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 (2021 high) to 1.0351 at 1.2759. This scenario is likely to remain the preferred case, as long as the 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.2445 at 1.1645 holds.