Daily Forex Analysis – GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair continues to exhibit a consolidation pattern, having its origin from 1.2040. As the intraday direction remains neutral, two distinct possibilities exist to watch. If the currency pair experiences a significant breach below 1.2040, it could initiate a more pronounced decline originating from 1.3145, with 1.1805 being the next critical support zone. Conversely, surpassing the 1.2340 resistance might rejuvenate the rebound from 1.2040, potentially aiming for the 55-day Exponential Moving Average, which is currently pegged at 1.2398.
Looking at a broader spectrum, the decline from the medium-term pinnacle of 1.3145 might still represent a corrective phase in the uptrend that began from the 2022 low of 1.0355. However, the probability of a full-blown trend reversal is amplifying. A continuous breach of the 38.2% retracement level from 1.0355 to 1.3145, currently at 1.2079, would usher the currency pair towards the 61.8% retracement mark at 1.1421. The risk appears to lean towards the downside, especially with the 55-day EMA at 1.2398 acting as a formidable barrier during any potential rebound.
Analysis Summary
The GBP/USD pair consolidates around 1.2040, with risks looming on the downside. A breach of 1.2040 could deepen the decline, but surpassing 1.2340 might indicate a rebound towards the 55-day EMA at 1.2398.
Key Points
- GBP/USD consolidating with a starting point at 1.2040.
- Significant decline potential if 1.2040 is breached, targeting 1.1805.
- Rebounding potential capped by the 55-day EMA at 1.2398.
