Detailed FX Market Outlook and Analysis

USD/CAD Daily Analysis 03-April-2023

USD/CAD Daily Analysis

At present, the intraday bias in USD/CAD is bearish. The drop from 1.3860 is viewed as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.3976. A deeper decline is likely to occur to the support zone of 1.3224/61, but a strong support level should emerge there to bring about a rebound. To indicate the completion of the decline, a break of 1.3650 support is needed first. If a recovery occurs instead, then further falls will remain in favor.

Looking at the bigger picture, the uptrend from the 2021 low of 1.2005 is still ongoing. A break of 1.3976 will confirm the resumption of the uptrend and target the 61.8% projection of the move from 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3261, which is at 1.4234. A solid breakthrough there will pave the way for the long-term resistance zone at 1.4667/89 (2016, 2020 highs). On the downside, a sustained break of the 55-week EMA (now at 1.3282) is required to confirm medium-term topping. Otherwise, the outlook will remain bullish, even in the event of a significant pullback.

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