Detailed FX Market Outlook and Analysis

USD/CAD Daily Analysis 04-MAY-2023

USD/CAD Daily Analysis

The USD/CAD pair is currently range-bound below 1.3668, and the intraday bias remains neutral. It is expected to rise further as long as the 1.3521 support level is intact. The corrective pattern from 1.3976 may have completed with three waves down to 1.3299. A break above 1.3668 would target the resistance zone of 1.3860/3976. However, a firm break of 1.3521 would weaken this bullish outlook and lead to a deeper fall towards the 1.3299 support level instead.

In the bigger picture, the uptrend from the 2021 low of 1.2005 is still ongoing. A break of 1.3976 would confirm the resumption of the trend and target the 61.8% projection level of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3261 at 1.4234. A firm break there would open the way to the long-term resistance zone at 1.4667/89, which represents the 2016 and 2020 highs. On the downside, a sustained break of the 55-week exponential moving average (now at 1.3302) is necessary to confirm a medium-term top. Otherwise, the outlook will remain bullish even in the case of a deep pullback.

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