Detailed FX Market Outlook and Analysis

USD/CAD Daily Analysis 31-MAR-2023

USD/CAD Daily Analysis

The current bias for USD/CAD within the day remains bearish, and further decline is anticipated as long as the 1.3650 support-turned-resistance level is maintained. The ongoing decline from 1.3860 could be considered as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.3976 and is expected to aim for 1.3224. However, a strong support level is likely to be observed in that area, leading to a rebound.

Looking at the bigger picture, the upward trend from the 2021 low of 1.2005 is still ongoing. A break of 1.3976 would confirm the resumption of the upward trend and aim for the 61.8% projection level of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3261 at 1.4234. A firm break there would open the path towards the long-term resistance zone at 1.4667/89 (the highs of 2016 and 2020). On the downside, a sustained break of the 55-week EMA (currently at 1.3283) is necessary to confirm a medium-term topping. Otherwise, the outlook will remain bullish even in case of a deep pullback.

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