The USD/CHF pair continues its neutral intraday trajectory, maintaining its consolidation phase. While a stronger recovery is not out of the question, the near-term outlook remains tilted towards bearishness, especially if the 0.8956 level, which now acts as a resistance, holds firm. A decline below 0.8819 would signal a resumption of the downward trend from the 0.9247 high, aiming next for the 100% Fibonacci projection of the 0.9247 to 0.8890 decline from 0.9115, located at 0.8758.
Expanding the view to a broader timeframe, the price movements from the 0.8555 low are interpreted as a corrective phase to the decline from the 2022 high of 1.0150. The current downturn from 0.9247 is considered the middle phase of this correction. A more substantial decline is anticipated, potentially reaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.8555 to 0.9247 rise at 0.8819. A sustained breach of this level would likely lead to a retest of the 0.8555 low. This scenario remains the primary expectation as long as the resistance at 0.9115 is not surpassed.
Analysis Summary
The USD/CHF pair is in a consolidation phase with a bearish near-term outlook, particularly if the pair stays below 0.8956. The broader trend suggests a corrective pattern with the potential for a further decline, especially if the 0.8819 level is breached.
Key Points
- USD/CHF in neutral consolidation; bearish if below 0.8956.
- Downward resumption likely under 0.8819.
- Broader correction suggests a potential retest of 0.8555 low.
