Detailed FX Market Outlook and Analysis

USD/CHF Daily Analysis 11-MAY-2023

USD/CHF Daily Analysis

The current intraday bias for USD/CHF remains neutral. Although there is a possibility for the downtrend from 1.0146 to continue lower, a significant level of support is expected near the 61.8% projection level of 1.0146 to 0.9058, calculated from 0.9439, at 0.8767. This support level is in close proximity to the long-term support at 0.8756, and it is anticipated to initiate a rebound, at least in the first attempt. On the upside, a breakthrough of the resistance at 0.8993 would indicate a short-term bottoming, particularly in light of a bullish convergence condition in the 4H MACD. This would shift the bias back to the upside, with a stronger rebound potential to reach the 55-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) currently positioned at 0.9054, and potentially even higher.

Considering the broader picture, the decline from the 2022 high of 1.1046 is viewed as a leg within a long-term range pattern that originated from 1.0342 (the 2016 high). Therefore, the downside movement should find support and reversal near the level of 0.8756. A sustained break above the support-turned-resistance level at 0.9058 would serve as the initial indication of a medium-term bottoming process. However, a decisive break of 0.8756 would carry significant bearish implications on a larger scale.

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