Detailed FX Market Outlook and Analysis

AUD/USD Daily Analysis 17-MAY-2022

AUD/USD Daily Analysis

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. Risk stays mildly on the downside as long as 0.7029 support turned resistance holds. A break of 0.6828 will resume a larger fall from 0.8006, and target 0.6756/60 medium-term Fibonacci level next. On the upside, however, a firm break of 0.7029 will indicate short-term bottoming, and bring a stronger rebound back to 0.7265 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). A deeper fall should be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from the 0.6756/60 cluster to contain the downside to complete the correction. However, a sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed already in a medium-term downtrend.

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