GBP/USD Daily Analysis
GBP/USD’s recovery from 1.2154 extends higher today but stays below 1.2637 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first and the outlook remains bearish. On the downside, the break of 1.2154 will resume the downtrend from 1.4248 to 200% projection of 1.3641 to 1.2999 from 1.3297 at 1.2013 next. Nevertheless, considering the bullish convergence condition in 4-hour MACD, the break of 1.2637 will confirm short-term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for a stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, based on current momentum, the fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) is at least at the same degree as the rise from 1.1409 (2020 low). That is, a fall from 1.4248 could be a leg inside the pattern from 1.1409, or resuming the longer-term downtrend. In either case, a deeper decline is expected as long as 1.2999 support turned resistance holds. The next target is 1.1409 low.