Daily Forex Analysis – AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair displays a neutral intraday bias, with consolidations below 0.6545. The downside appears limited and should find support at the 55 4H EMA, now at 0.6441, potentially leading to a rebound. A crucial development would be a break above 0.6545 and sustained trading above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 0.6898 to 0.6273 range, at 0.6512. This would suggest that the corrective decline from 0.7160 has concluded with three waves down to 0.6273, setting the stage for a more robust rally towards the falling channel resistance, currently at 0.6678.
In a wider context, there is still no definitive indication that the downtrend from the 2021 high of 0.8010 has ended. Although the current rebound from 0.6273 might continue to ascend, it could represent the third phase of the corrective pattern from the 2022 low of 0.6173. For now, medium-term bearishness is expected to prevail as long as the 0.6898 resistance remains unbreached.
Analysis Summary
The AUD/USD pair is in a neutral phase with potential support at 0.6441, which could lead to a rebound. A sustained break above 0.6545 might signal the end of the corrective phase from 0.7160, with a rally towards 0.6678 expected. However, medium-term bearishness persists while under 0.6898.
Key Points
- Neutral bias in AUD/USD with support at 0.6441.
- A break above 0.6545 could end the corrective decline.
- Medium-term bearishness remains below 0.6898 resistance.
