EUR/USD Analysis
The current intraday bias in EUR/USD maintains a downward trajectory, echoing the ongoing descent from the short-term peak of 1.1016. A sustained breach of the 55-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) standing at 1.0770 is pivotal, potentially initiating a retest of the 1.0447 support level. Notably, an upward shift beyond the minor resistance at 1.0804 would briefly neutralize the intraday bias. However, the prevailing downside risk persists as long as the 1.1016 resistance remains intact, particularly in the event of a market recovery.
The price movements following the 1.1274 mark are construed as a corrective pattern within the ascent from the 2022 low of 0.9534. The ascent from 1.0447 is tentatively identified as the second leg of this pattern. While the potential exists for further upward momentum, it is expected to be capped by the 1.1274 threshold, ushering in the third leg of the pattern. Significantly, a sustained breach of the 55-day EMA would signal the commencement of the third leg, targeting levels below 1.0447.
Analysis Summary
The intraday bias for EUR/USD leans bearish, with the ongoing descent from 1.1016. A breach of the 55-day EMA at 1.0770 could pave the way for a retest of 1.0447 support. Despite minor resistance at 1.0804, the downside risk persists as long as 1.1016 resistance holds. In the broader context, movements from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern, with the ascent from 1.0447 considered the second leg. Further upside potential is anticipated but limited by the 1.1274 threshold, signaling the onset of the third leg with a break below 1.0447.
Key Points
- Intraday bias is bearish, with a descent from 1.1016.
- A sustained break of 55-day EMA (1.0770) could lead to a 1.0447 support retest.
- Movements from 1.1274 indicate a corrective pattern, with limited upside potential to 1.1274 and below.
