Detailed FX Market Outlook and Analysis

GBP/USD Continues To Decline From Short-Term Peak

Daily Analysis

GBP/USD Analysis

The decline in GBP/USD from the short-term peak of 1.2735 is currently underway. The intraday bias maintains a downward stance, targeting the 55-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) situated at 1.2440. Any potential shift on the upside, surpassing the minor resistance at 1.2617, would temporarily neutralize the intraday bias. Nonetheless, the downside risk persists as long as the 1.2735 resistance remains unbreached, particularly in the event of a market recovery.

The price movements following 1.3145 are interpreted as a corrective pattern within the ascent from the 2022 low of 1.0355. The robust rebound from the 38.6% retracement level of 1.0355 (2022 low) to 1.3145, positioned at 1.2079, indicates that the ongoing ascent from 1.2036 is potentially the second leg of this pattern. While further upward momentum is plausible, it is expected to be capped by the 1.3145 threshold, signaling the initiation of the third leg.

Analysis Summary

GBP/USD continues its descent from the 1.2735 short-term peak, maintaining a downside bias towards the 55-day EMA at 1.2440. Neutralizing the intraday bias requires surpassing 1.2617, but the downside risk lingers until the 1.2735 resistance is breached. In the broader context, movements from 1.3145 form a corrective pattern, with the current ascent likely representing the second leg. Further upside is expected but constrained by the 1.3145 threshold.

Key Points

  • Ongoing decline from 1.2735 short-term peak with downside bias to 55-day EMA at 1.2440.
  • Neutralizing intraday bias requires a move above 1.2617.
  • The broader corrective pattern suggests the ongoing ascent is the second leg, with the upside limited by 1.3145 for the third leg.

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