The EUR/USD pair is currently experiencing a phase of stabilization, with its value hovering slightly below 1.0968. This indicates a neutral intraday bias. A continued upward trend is likely, provided that the support level at 1.0827 remains intact. A decisive surpassing of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement mark, which lies at 1.0962 (calculated from the range of 1.1278 to 1.0451), would signal a resurgence of the upward movement originating from 1.0451, potentially challenging the peak at 1.1278. Conversely, a definitive breach below the 1.0827 support could suggest a short-term peak formation, shifting the bias towards a more pronounced downward trajectory.
Expanding the scope to a broader perspective, the price movements tracing back to the 1.1278 high are perceived as a corrective phase in the ascent from the 2022 low of 0.9538. The current rise from 1.0451 is preliminarily viewed as the middle phase of this corrective pattern. Although further upward movements are anticipated, they are expected to encounter a ceiling at 1.1278, setting the stage for the emergence of the third phase of this pattern.
Analysis Summary
The EUR/USD exchange rate is currently stable below 1.0968, with a neutral short-term outlook. The support at 1.0827 is key for maintaining upward momentum, potentially challenging the 1.1278 high. Conversely, breaking below this support may signal a shift towards a deeper decline. In a broader context, this movement is part of a larger corrective pattern following the 2022 low.
Key Points
- Stability below 1.0968 with a neutral bias.
- Key support at 1.0827 is pivotal for further rise.
- The potential shift towards a deeper decline if support breaks.
