Daily Forex Analysis – EUR/USD
In the intraday context, EUR/USD is currently on a downward trajectory, focusing on retesting the critical level of 1.0447. A decisive breach of this level would reignite the broader descent that initiated from the high of 1.1274, setting a target at the 1.0199 Fibonacci support level. On the contrary, a break above the minor resistance at 1.0557 would temporarily neutralize the intraday bias. However, the overarching risk remains skewed to the downside as long as the resistance at 1.0639 remains unbroken.
In the grander scheme of things, the decline from the medium-term peak at 1.1274 may be construed as a corrective phase within the broader ascent that originated from the low of 0.9534 in 2022. Nevertheless, there is a growing likelihood of a complete trend reversal. In either scenario, the ongoing descent should ultimately target the 61.8% retracement level, calculated from the 0.9534 to 1.1274 move, which aligns at 1.0199. It’s crucial to note that the downside risk persists as long as the 55-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently positioned at 1.0708, remains a formidable resistance point, particularly in the event of a rebound.
Analysis Summary
EUR/USD’s intraday analysis suggests a potential retest of 1.0447, with a break paving the way for a deeper fall towards 1.0199. Minor resistance at 1.0557 could briefly neutralize the bias, but the downside risk prevails as long as 1.0639 resistance holds. In the bigger picture, a trend reversal possibility is growing as the decline from 1.1274 aims for 1.0199, contingent upon the 55-day EMA’s stance.
Key Takeaways:
- Intraday bias favors a retest of 1.0447, with a break targeting 1.0199.
- Minor resistance at 1.0557 could briefly neutralize the bias.
- The broader picture hints at a potential trend reversal, with 1.0199 as the target, dependent on the 55-day EMA’s role.
