The EUR/USD currency pair remains confined within a range, with its upper boundary set at 1.0968. The intraday bias is currently neutral. A further rally is likely, provided the support at 1.0827 holds firm. A decisive break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which is identified at 1.0962 (calculated from the decline of 1.1278 to 1.0451), would signal a resumption of the upward movement from 1.0451, aiming to retest the high of 1.1278. Conversely, a substantial break below the 1.0827 support level would suggest a short-term peak has been reached, shifting the bias towards a more pronounced decline.
Expanding the perspective, the price movements from the high of 1.1278 are interpreted as a corrective phase following the rise from the 2022 low of 0.9538. The ascent from 1.0451 is currently seen as the middle segment of this correction. While additional upward movements are plausible, the ascent is expected to be capped by 1.1278, setting the stage for the third phase of this corrective pattern.
Analysis Summary
The EUR/USD pair is in a range-bound state with a neutral short-term bias. A rally is favored if the support at 1.0827 is intact, but a break above 1.0962 is required to continue the upward trend. The broader outlook suggests a corrective pattern with the next phase likely to commence after reaching 1.1278.
Key Points
- EUR/USD range-bound below 1.0968.
- Rally potential if 1.0827 support holds.
- The broader pattern indicates a limited upside at 1.1278.
