The USD/JPY pair has seen a retreat after encountering resistance at the 4-hour Exponential Moving Average, now positioned at 149.66. This shift has brought a neutral intraday bias, and a further decline is anticipated. A break below the 147.18 level would signal a continuation of the descent from 151.93, with the next target being the medium-term channel support at 146.04. However, if the pair manages a sustained break above the 55 4-hour EMA, it could reignite near-term bullish momentum, potentially challenging the resistance zone around 151.93/97.
In a broader perspective, the rise from the 2023 low of 127.24 is viewed as the second phase of a pattern that began at the 2022 high of 151.97. A decisive break below the 145.10 level, which now serves as support, would confirm the completion of this second phase, especially after facing rejection at the 151.97 mark. This could lead to a deeper decline, potentially reaching the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 127.24 to 151.93 at 142.49, and possibly extending to the 61.8% retracement at 136.67. On the flip side, a strong rebound from 145.10 could maintain medium-term bullishness, setting the stage for another attempt to breach the 151.97 level later.
Analysis Summary
The USD/JPY pair is in a neutral phase after pulling back from the 149.66 level. A further drop below 147.18 could extend the decline towards 146.04, while a break above could reignite bullishness towards 151.97. The broader trend suggests potential fluctuations between these levels.
Key Points
- Neutral bias after retreat from 149.66.
- A break below 147.18 may extend the decline.
- Potential bullish revival on breaking above 149.66.
