Daily Forex Analysis – EUR/USD
Currently, the EUR/USD pair is displaying a neutral intraday bias. A break below the slightly revised support level of 1.0526 could shift this bias towards a downward trend, aiming for a retest of the marginally higher low at 1.0451. Should this support level be breached, it would signal a continuation of the larger descent from 1.1278. Conversely, a robust recovery from these levels, especially if it includes surpassing the resistance of 1.0697, could suggest a rebound. This potential upward movement is further emphasized by the resistance near 1.0768 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the fall from 1.1278 to 1.0451).
From a broader perspective, the decline from the medium-term peak of 1.1278 could still represent a corrective phase in the larger ascent from the 2022 low of 0.9538. However, the likelihood of a complete trend reversal appears to be increasing. Regardless of the long-term trend’s direction, the next target for the current downward movement is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from 0.9538 to 1.1278, which lies at 1.0203. The overall risk remains skewed to the downside as long as the 55-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), now sitting at 1.0669, isn’t exceeded in any potential rebound.
Analysis Summary
The EUR/USD pair’s immediate outlook remains neutral, with a break below 1.0526 potentially initiating further declines towards 1.0451. Alternatively, a strong rebound surpassing 1.0697 might challenge the 1.0768 resistance. The medium-term risk skews downward, targeting 1.0203, unless a rebound exceeds the 55-day EMA at 1.0669.
Key Insights:
- Immediate neutral bias in EUR/USD with downside risk below 1.0526.
- Potential rebound targets include 1.0697 and 1.0768.
- Medium-term downward risk towards 1.0203, conditional on 55-day EMA resistance at 1.0669.
