Daily Forex Analysis – EUR/USD
The current intraday stance of EUR/USD remains in a state of neutrality. A downturn, marked by the breach of the 1.0659 minor support level and consistent trading below the 55 4H EMA, now at 1.0674, could suggest the conclusion of the rebound from 1.0451, which had peaked at 1.0759. This peak was notably just shy of the 1.0768 cluster resistance, representing the 38.2% retracement from the 1.1278 to 1.0451 range. Should this bearish scenario unfold, the focus would shift back to the downside, targeting the support zone between 1.0451 and 1.0519. Conversely, a strong rebound from the current level, culminating in a decisive surge past the 1.0768 mark, could trigger a more robust rally, aiming for the 61.8% retracement at 1.0962.
From a broader perspective, the price actions starting from the high of 1.1278 are interpreted as a corrective pattern following the rise from the 2022 low of 0.9538. The ascent from 1.0451 is currently seen as the second phase of this pattern. While further upward movement is possible, it is expected to find a ceiling at 1.1278, leading to the commencement of the third phase of the pattern. However, a break below 1.0451 would signal a resumption of the decline, potentially reaching the 61.8% retracement of the 0.9547 to 1.1278 movement at 1.0203.
Analysis Summary
EUR/USD’s intraday bias remains neutral, with potential shifts either towards a downward trend targeting 1.0451/1.0519 or an upward surge surpassing 1.0768. In the long term, the pair’s movements appear as a corrective pattern with potential limits near 1.1278, while a decline below 1.0451 could lead to further falls.
Key Points
- Neutral intraday bias with the possible shift to a bearish trend.
- A break above 1.0768 could signal a strong rally.
- The long-term view sees current trends as corrective, capped near 1.1278.
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